By RYAN SENECAL
Staff Writer
The Iowa Caucuses have come and gone, but the presidential race for the nomination is only beginning.
In the largest Republican field in history, 12 candidates participated in the first in the nation caucus. Texas Senator Ted Cruz won the Republican caucus with about 28 percent of the vote and earning him eight delegates. Businessman Donald Trump placed second with 24 percent of the vote. Florida Senator Marco Rubio placed a close third with 23 percent of the vote. Both men earned seven delegates.
It came as somewhat of a surprise when retired neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson came in fourth with nine percent of the vote, earning him three delegates. Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, Ohio Governor John Kasich, and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee got one delegate each.
When primaries and caucuses begin, it comes time to say good-bye to candidates that did not do so well. Paul, Huckabee, and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum all suspended their respective campaigns. Santorum announced his departure form the race on the Fox News show “On The Record,” telling host Greta Van Susteren that he is endorsing Rubio for the Republican nomination.
I think Mr. Paul was smart to drop out when he did. He did not have a lot of momentum in the early states and Republicans were leery of his foreign policy stance after the San Bernardino terrorist attack in early December. Now, he can focus on his senate re-election if he chooses to do so. Paul belongs in the senate and it is my hope that he can champion criminal justice reform in the next administration.
The results of the Republican Iowa Caucus have proven something that has been brewing for a while: the race for the Republican nomination is a three-way race between Cruz, Trump, and Rubio. It’s been coming down to this for a while and it looks like one of these three will be the nominee.
Cruz did very well in Iowa with his Christian message. More than half of Iowa Republican voters in the caucus were Evangelical/Christian. They want to hear from someone who shares their values.
Trump came in a disappointing second place and of course it did not come without controversy. Trump claims that Cruz broke the law by sending out a phony campaign flyer.
The media and pundits seemed very impressed with Mr. Rubio’s strong third-place finish. Mr. Rubio also has a strong message about his faith, but it was too little too late in Iowa. It looks like the media is looking forward to see how well Mr. Rubio can perform in New Hampshire and whether his good showing in New Hampshire can propel him to victory in South Carolina.
Looking ahead to New Hampshire, it looks like Mr. Rubio has the momentum by him, or as its been dubbed recently, “Marcomentum.” Mr. Rubio is getting close to a thousand people at campaign rallies in the Granite State. He told ABC News recently that he needs to book bigger rooms to hold town hall style meetings.
I believe Mr. Trump will be victorious in the primary, but look out for Mr. Rubio who could end up being the dark horse in this contest. If that’s the case, he could certainly propel his way to the nomination.
If Mr. Trump loses the primary, there really is no other place for him to go. He still has a lot of money and support but that’s slowly diminishing as we get to the state-by-state contests.
Polls have not been the best resource of projecting a winner in elections the last few election cycles. This is especially the case in Iowa, where polls showed Mr. Trump leading Mr. Cruz by about four percent and Mr. Rubio in a distant third. We will see if the polls in New Hampshire are reflective of the results from the primary on Feb. 9.
