By NICHOLAS MOORE
Business Manager
Calling all conspiracy theorists and doomsday preppers! Stop worrying as much as you are about the “beer virus,” as some are jokingly dubbing the coronavirus. Yes, it may be a disease that is directly related to SARS and MERS, as they are variants of coronaviruses, however, the mortality rate and understanding of the virus shows that we have certainly had worse pandemics on hand.
Note that this is still a severe virus; however, the hype around the pathogen is shrouded in conspiracy, false information, and pandering to a fearful audience rather than reporting the realistic scope of the scenario.
Moving past all of the dissonance from unreliable sources, how harmful is this virus compared to previous outbreaks, and what can we expect within the next few weeks?
To start, coronaviruses are not new. SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) and MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) are both variants of a coronavirus, first discovered in 1937, but not in humans until the 1960s. Mammals, in this case, including humans, are prone to these infections that result in symptoms such as shortness of breath, fever, fatigue, and other mild symptoms, with severe cases resulting in pneumonia and shortness of breath or trouble breathing.
In the case of our particular strain, fully named Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV), mutations from other mammal species can result in becoming zoonotic, or interspecies mutations allowing the virus to infect a species besides the one currently infected.
This, while still not entirely clear, may have been the catalyst for affecting the population in Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the pandemic. Preliminary studies are suspecting bats were the original progenitor, but as of currently, this is not confirmed.
As for what people should pay attention to most, the infected count and mortality rate. This infection initially, was not spreadable from human to human contact; however, when the virus started being transmittable to humans (again, thanks to a zoonotic shift), it was then able to transmit from human to human contact. The numbers have drastically risen because inside China, many provinces have at least one person infected, and areas hard hit such as Wuhan already have a large portion of the population infected. Outside of China, however, there are currently only around 100 cases worldwide split between 23 countries.
For the mortality rate, currently with the most recent CDC numbers show that the death toll is 304, and the current number infected is roughly 14,380 (and rapidly increasing), meaning the current mortality rate of the virus is 2%. That is incredibly low, considering the Ebola virus had a mortality rate of around 50%, 25 times more lethal than our current pandemic. SARS and MERS had mortality rates of 9.6 and 34.4%, respectively.
Those numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt, as mutations in the current strain, unknown vectors that increase symptom severity, and increased infection rate can easily make the coronavirus more dangerous. The current situation of the virus in terms of lethality is much lower than other epidemics.
In terms of the global reaction to the virus, many leaders are taking appropriate steps to reduce the infection count from rising. Russia closed its border with China to reduce the risk of the virus spreading, but it still allows traded goods to be transported across the border. Countries in Asia, North America, and Europe all canceled flights to China to reduce the risk of infection, as well as the citizens from North American and European countries that have a dual residence, are being evacuated.
Stocks and markets are also in question, as a global pandemic risk shocked the stock market throughout the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite, all of which are significant stocks, fluctuated over the week, most ending a percent or two down on the closing bell on Friday Jan. 31. Oil prices fell by one-point-one percent as well, which is a highly demanded worldwide commodity. Prices for Chinese stocks are expected to fall as well, considering spending will harshly decrease with fears of the virus spreading impacting their economy.
The global reaction to coronavirus, while on the fearful side, is warranted. This is a severe pathogenic scenario where there is a mortality risk involved with anyone infected, however, the more panic-induced and allowed to thrive, the less of chance progress towards actually stopping the virus due to deeper concerns with the public’s reaction.
With this in mind, while people should be cautious, not reckless, and keep their physical health in mind and take appropriate steps to avoid contact with anything that may lead to infection.
